It is not yet clear that the Gaza ceasefire will even come into force. But, if the war is indeed ending, what has it meant for the world?
For Israel, the impact seems double-edged. The country’s leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, can argue that he has turned a national tragedy into a strategic victory. Hamas has been devastated, if not entirely destroyed. Hizbollah, the Lebanese militant group that was the most heavily armed and threatening part of Iran’s “axis of resistance”, has also been debilitated. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct fire. But most of Iran’s missiles failed to get through the defences of Israel and its allies — and the Islamic republic looks in a weaker position than for many decades.
On the strategic level, Israel is emerging from this conflict as the superpower of the Middle East — with its military deterrence fully restored and its enemies in disarray. But set against that, Israel has suffered enormous reputational damage. Some 46,000 people are believed to have been killed during Israel’s offensive and Gaza lies in ruins. Netanyahu has been indicted by the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges — which places him in the same legal bracket as Vladimir Putin. Like the Russian leader, Netanyahu will now find it much harder to travel internationally.