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Markets may be underestimating how much inflation will fall this year

It is not just tariffs that might affect growth but also trade uncertainty and the effects of the Trump policy agenda

The writer is former vice-chair of the Federal Reserve and global economic adviser at Pimco

How the US Federal Reserve is — and should be — thinking about tariffs and monetary policy is a topic on many minds these days, from market participants to political pundits.

I served on the Fed as vice-chair in 2018-19 when tariffs, trade wars and trade policy uncertainty were also in the news during Donald Trump’s first presidential term. As transcripts of meetings of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee held during these years show, such factors were analysed in staff briefings presented at Fed meetings at that time.

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