If you could condense the Democratic party’s plan into one line, it would be: “Just wait until the midterm elections.” Faith that the economy under President Donald Trump will curdle is already backed by data. Inflation expectations are rising, consumer confidence is falling and voters are starting to chafe at public job cuts. Throw in the cumulating toll of Trump’s trade wars and a midterm defeat seems plausible.
But betting on Trump’s failure misses what got him there. The worse things go for him in politics as it is meant to be played, the likelier he is to rip up the rule book. Former vice-president Dick Cheney had a rule that if there was a 1 per cent risk of something happening, we must act as if it will. Cheney was referring to terrorists after 9/11 using weapons of mass destruction. The risk that Trump will take America across the line into autocracy looks more like 50:50.
The more precarious his situation, the more boats he will burn. Just over six years ago, I deemed Trump not a fascist because he was missing a key trait — a plan to seize control of the so-called power ministries. With apologies for self-quoting (which I promise not to repeat), this was my verdict: “The first thing aspiring totalitarians do is conduct a purge of the military. Loyalists must be installed. Then they methodically do the same for the police, intelligence agencies and beyond . . . Trump is not even trying to do this.”