The writer is head of thematic fixed income research at Barclays
The US-Ukraine minerals deal was a symbolic win for both sides. Kyiv secures long-term US investment in a free and sovereign future. Washington gains preferential access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth and a chance to reduce its dependence on China in a strategic area.
Yet, the prospect of a surge in Ukrainian critical minerals remains a distant one. While attention often centres on extraction — the untapped deposits of rare earths, lithium and titanium beneath Ukraine’s soil — the real constraint lies further along the value chain. The bottleneck isn’t in getting minerals out of the ground, but in what happens next: refining. And this is where China’s dominance is unmatched.
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