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The markets are declaring tariff victory too soon

A potential supply and demand shock means the US economy may be in for years of volatility

It is a mark of how eager investors are to put the idea of a trade war behind them that markets surged last week on the news of a tariff “deal” between the US and China.

Never mind that it was a 90-day pause on higher rates that is likely to bring only temporary relief. Investors bought the story that US President Donald Trump’s market friendly Treasury secretary Scott Bessent was now firmly in the driving seat, China hawk Peter Navarro had been pushed into a broom cupboard somewhere in the back of the White House and we could all go back to pre-“liberation day” bullishness.

I don’t buy it.

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