观点货币政策

Interest rates are normal, the world is not
利率回归正常,但世界没有

Given all this fragility, recessionary or inflationary shocks — or even both together — are conceivable
沃尔夫:超低利率时代已经终结,最关键金融工具的收益率已恢复正常,然而当前的种种脆弱性,意味着衰退、通胀甚至滞胀都有可能发生。

The interest rate, real and nominal, on long-term safe assets is perhaps the most important price in a capitalist economy. It tells one about confidence in governments and the economy. In recent years, these prices have normalised. The era of ultra-low interest rates that began in 2007-09, with the financial crises, seems to be over. An era of normality seemed to be returning. Hurrah! But the world does not really look very “normal”. Should we be waiting for big new shocks, instead?

长期避险资产的实际和名义利率也许是资本主义manbetx20客户端下载 中最重要的价格。从中可以得知人们对政府和manbetx20客户端下载 有多大信心。近些年来,这些价格已经正常化。始于2007-09年、伴随金融危机而来的超低利率时代似乎结束了。一个正常化的时代似乎正在回归。万幸!但世界看起来其实并不是很“正常”。相反,我们是否应该等候迎接一些重大的新冲击呢?

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