观点中东政治与社会

How the Israel-Iran war may develop

If Iran is losing a conventional conflict, there is a danger that it will resort to unconventional means of retaliation

Wars are unpredictable. Even the Israelis and the Iranians cannot know how their current conflict will end.

There are, however, a number of analogies to consider. The first is the six day war of 1967. The second is the Iraq war of 2003. A third scenario is a new type of conflict in which Iran uses unconventional means to strike back against Israel and the west. That could turn into a hybrid war, potentially involving terrorism or even weapons of mass destruction.

The Netanyahu government would love a rerun of 1967 — in which an Israeli pre-emptive strike destroyed the Egyptian air force on the ground, in preparation for a rapid victory over Egypt, Syria and Jordan.

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