Like a dog to a bone, Donald Trump always returns to tariffs. He is now proposing a modified list of them on a range of countries, including close allies and a number of desperately poor nations, to be imposed on August 1 2025. Will he chicken out, yet again? Who knows? But the chances that he will, or indeed could, get deals able to assuage his irrational mercantilism seem low to non-existent. An irrational man is unpredictable. Maybe this time he means it. If so, May’s already high average US effective tariff level of 8.8 per cent would end up much higher. We would enter a new world.
正如狗总是会回去啃骨头一样，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)总会回到关税上。现在他正拿着一份修改过的关税税率清单向一系列国家提议从2025年8月1日起实行，这些国家中包括美国的亲密盟友以及一些极度贫困的国家。TACO（Trump Always Chickens Out的首字母缩写，意思是特朗普总是临阵退缩——译者注）定律会不会再次应验？谁知道呢？但他达成能够缓解他非理性重商主义的协议的几率，看起来微乎其微。一个非理性的人是不可预测的。也许这次他是当真的。如果他是当真的，那么在2025年5月已经高达8.8%的平均有效关税将变得更高。我们将进入一个新的世界。