In the years following the 2008 market collapse and ensuing recession, there was no doubt which industry was the most politicised — banking. Since then, private equity has been more in the spotlight, on account of its profits and predation. But if I were to pick a single business that will be at the nexus of economic and political controversy in the coming years, I’d say it would be the housing industry.
Housing is inherently political because it represents both a financial asset and a basic human need: shelter. It’s also a key part of being middle class. “Little pink houses for you and me,” as heartland rocker John Mellencamp sang, are the core of the American dream. But they are increasingly out of reach for most people, and particularly young people. Late last year, the National Association of Realtors reported that the median age of first-time homebuyers in the US hit 38. That’s up from 29 in the 1980s.
This growing age gap is in large part about prices. In June, the median price of a home sold in the US was $446,766, according to Redfin. But according to the National Association of Home Builders, roughly 75 per cent of Americans now can’t afford the median home. This has hit everyone hard, but home buying for Gen Z and millennials has basically flatlined since 2022.