The writer is the former governor of the Central Bank of Kenya.
When the dust settles on the Trump tariff war, African economies and others in the global south will be hit hardest, thrust into a world with diminished options for advancing their development. It may signal a long hard winter but the moment calls for honest self-assessment and realistic optimism, rather than pessimism or surrender.
For the global south, 2025 has been plagued by increasing uncertainty. Sub-Saharan Africa countries have faced significant external and internal pressures that imperil the post-Covid recovery and threaten to reverse two decades of economic gains. Many nations are still reeling from increased borrowing costs; Africa’s external debt service payments are at their highest in more than two decades. Adding to their challenges, Washington has imposed or threatened significant tariffs, which will be devastating to export-dependent African economies. At the same time, policy uncertainties in the advanced economies have made it difficult for African governments to rely on the traditional external supports.