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TSMC’s stock market rally is a triumph of need over fear

The balance between risk and dominance will determine the chipmaker’s outlook

Taiwan’s chip dominance has never been stronger. Chip exports, already at record highs last year, have nearly doubled, driving total exports higher for the 23rd straight month in September. The artificial intelligence boom has made local chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co one of the most dependable beneficiaries in the sector.

TSMC’s sales rose by nearly a third in its most recent financial quarter, thanks to sustained global demand for AI build-outs and orders from companies including Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Apple. Each relies heavily on TSMC’s chip fabrication lines, which account for nearly 90 per cent of the world’s most advanced chip production. That dominance is set to deepen in the coming years as the company’s most cutting edge 2-nanometre chips are expected to start mass production late this year.

That has meant widening profitability for TSMC. Its operating margin of about 50 per cent far exceeds that of global peers, while its shares have gained more than 80 per cent from their April lows. They are trading at 23 times forward earnings, a premium to South Korean rival Samsung.

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