The writer is chief China economist and head of Asia research at GlobalData TS Lombard
The actions of one-fifth of humanity in China have wide-ranging spillovers beyond its borders. For almost 30 years now, the global economy has been underpinned, for better or worse, by two structural constants — goods disinflation stemming from the country and its excess savings. The latter is about to change, significantly increasing upward pressure on bond yields in developed economies.
The three principal drivers of Chinese consumption — demographics, limited government transfers and poor returns on wealth — are all shifting.
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