The writer is the Gregory and Ania Coffey Professor of Economics at Harvard University and formerly First Deputy Managing Director and Chief Economist of the IMF
Twenty twenty-five was a year when everything changed — yet, somehow, nothing did. The US raised tariffs to their highest level in almost a century, China retaliated and global policy uncertainty intensified. And still, global growth is projected at 3.2 per cent, exactly what forecasters expected a year earlier when none of this turbulence was on the horizon. It would be a mistake, however, to think the global economy is unaffected by tariff fights and policy chaos.
We have seen this movie before. When the Brexit referendum passed, despite the sharp increase in uncertainty, the economic impact was initially minimal. But a decade later, the UK is estimated to have lost between 6 to 8 per cent of GDP relative to its pre-Brexit trajectory. The lesson is simple: structural damage reveals itself slowly, and always too late to be reversed.