In business, uncertainty is usually a liability. But some companies are turning it into a product. Online platforms, such as US-based Polymarket and Kalshi, which allow users to make wagers on all sorts of binary public events, are thriving. In just two years, punts placed per month — on topics ranging from whether US President Donald Trump will acquire Greenland before 2027, to whether Taylor Swift will announce she is pregnant before the end of March — are estimated to have ballooned 130 times to over $13bn. It is tempting to dismiss these activities as mere gambling, or as a symptom of a society that has pushed financialisation to its limits. But prediction markets could yet serve a useful financial function, with careful policing.
在商业上，不确定性通常是一种负担。但有些公司正在把不确定性变成一种产品。诸如总部在美国的Polymarket和Kalshi之类的网络平台正欣欣向荣——这些平台上的用户可以对只有非此即彼两种结果的各类公共事件下注。短短两年，月度押注总金额据估计增长了130倍，超过了130亿美元，而且什么话题都有，从美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在2027年前会不会得到格陵兰岛，到泰勒•斯威夫特(Taylor Swift)在3月底之前会不会宣布怀孕。肯定有人认为这种事不过是赌博，或者是社会“极限金融化”的外在表现。但如果加以审慎监管，预测市场还是可以发挥出有用的金融功能的。