The truism that the future is uncertain is made more concrete when the principal guest at a conference on a Swiss mountain has declared a trade war for territory against his country’s closest allies, many of whose leaders are also guests. This is surreal, at the least. But what does it mean for the world’s future, not least its economic future, to be vulnerable to the unpredictable whims of the president of the world’s leading power?
Before returning to that question, let us look at where the economy has been and might go in the near future. The World Bank’s new Global Economic Prospects provides a clarifying view of the recent past. In particular, it notes: “The global economy has shown notable resilience to heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Last year’s faster-than-expected pace of growth capped a recovery from the 2020 recession unmatched in six decades, even if vulnerable emerging market and developing economies are lagging behind.”
The fact that the recovery from the economic impact of the pandemic has been so strong is cheering. It is due, not least, to the effectiveness of vaccines, for whose development Donald Trump, with his Operation Warp Speed, bore much responsibility. The contrast with the attitude to vaccines of his second administration is stupefying.