How should UK policymakers plan for its future? The usual reaction to such a question is to scoff: the British don’t plan; they muddle through. But even if that is what they will do, it must help to understand the context.
The list of countries that built their futures on trust in a US-led world order is long. But the UK is close to the very top. The US was its decisive ally in the first and second world wars and the cold war. The UK was enthusiastically engaged with the US at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 and the discussions that created the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade in 1947. It was there at the birth of Nato. When, more recently, it decided to go for Brexit and “global Britain”, the assumption was that Uncle Sam would always be by its side.
What is the country to do if that is no longer true? A recent paper, “The Changing Global Order: Towards a Refreshed UK Strategy”, by Jenny Bates, former director-general at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, now Heywood Fellow at the Blavatnik School, addresses this. Her three big points are simple and compelling: first, the UK loved the old order; second, like it or not, it is dying; third, the UK has as yet no notion how to respond.