观点伊朗战争

The Iran crisis has not yet peaked

The war is currently more likely to escalate than to be resolved by negotiation

The fog of war is a familiar idea. The US and Iran are now introducing the world to a new concept — the fog of peace.

A ceasefire is in place in the conflict between America, Israel and Iran. But little else is clear. This week began with the Americans saying that new peace talks were about to begin and the Iranians denying it. Will the current ceasefire last beyond Wednesday? Has Iran offered to stop all nuclear enrichment? Will the Strait of Hormuz stay closed or reopen?

It all depends on who you ask — and when you ask them. On Friday April 17, President Donald Trump announced triumphantly that “Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again”. The following day Iran announced it was closing the strait.

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