Fifty per cent of the world’s seaborne trade in sulphur passes through the Strait of Hormuz. So does 34 per cent of trade in crude oil, 29 per cent of liquefied petroleum gas, 19 per cent of liquefied natural gas, 19 per cent of refined oil products, 13 per cent of chemicals, including fertilisers, and nearly 10 per cent of aluminium. This is a chokepoint of the world economy. It is a place in which one starts a war only after careful consideration of goals, means and risks. That is not what happened before the assault on Iran on 28 February 2026. As a result, two months later, we are where we are. (See charts.)Yet where are we? The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook, published on Tuesday, presents a detailed picture of the most important global outcome, namely its impact on supplies of all the stuff listed above. This war is a reminder that we do not live in an intangible world. Not only do we eat tangible food, wear tangible clothes and so on, but behind everything intangible — artificial intelligence and renewable energy included — lies an enormous quantity of tangible stuff, as the British writer Ed Conway showed in his book Material World.
manbetx app苹果 海运硫磺贸易的50%要经过霍尔木兹海峡；此外，这里还承载着manbetx app苹果 34%的原油、29%的液化石油气、19%的液化天然气、19%的成品油、13%的化学品（包括化肥）以及近10%的铝贸易。霍尔木兹海峡，是世界manbetx20客户端下载 真正的咽喉要道。要在这样的地方发动战争，必然是对目标、手段和风险都进行过极其审慎的考量。但2026年2月28日对伊朗的袭击显然并非如此。于是，两个月后的今天，局面就成了现在这个样子。（见图表）