When the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in February some of President Donald Trump’s most ardent supporters sought, tenuously, to cast the move as part of a grand strategy to squeeze China, which gets the bulk of its oil imports from the Middle East. Over 10 weeks on, as Xi Jinping prepares to host the US president in Beijing on Thursday, that narrative appears even more doubtful. Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up costs for Chinese factories and households. But the economy has largely absorbed the shock, helped by ample commodity reserves and price interventions. In fact, the conflict has opened ways for China to increase its global economic influence.First, high fossil fuel prices and volatile supplies have underscored the need for nations to hasten their shift to renewable power sources. This is a boon for Beijing. Chinese firms account for at least 70 per cent of global manufacturing capacity for major green technologies. Since the war started, Beijing’s exports of solar and battery products have surged, vindicating the government’s long-term investment in clean energy supply chains.
Next, Trump’s capricious approach to foreign policy has alienated US allies and boosted Beijing’s relative international standing. Survey data from intelligence firm Morning Consult shows that China’s global net global favourability has been in positive territory and above America’s since Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs in April 2025. China’s government could leverage this to boost economic ties with advanced nations and developing countries. In March, Premier Li Qiang convened global chief executives at the China Development Forum to tout the country’s reliability and supply chains.
Beijing’s stockpiles of resources — from fertiliser to refined fuels — mean it can also act as a supplier of last resort for countries facing shortages. And China’s expertise in infrastructure projects puts it in prime position to support the rebuilding of ports, energy facilities and plants in the Middle East.