The writer is a distinguished research fellow at CNA, an independent research instituteThis week, US President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing — his first trip to China since a state visit in 2017. There, two strong-willed leaders, each of whom believes his country has leverage over the other, will seek to put a positive public face on a contentious relationship. A single meeting will not solve the many intractable issues that divide the two countries. This summit is about competition management.
Some argue that the fact that the meeting is taking place at all is a positive outcome, given it has already been postponed once because of the Iran war. We can anticipate announcements of a few trade deals and perhaps the establishment of a “Board of Trade” to manage the flow of non-sensitive goods. Perhaps the leaders will also set up a new working group on AI or fresh initiatives to increase people-to-people exchanges. But expectations for what else may result from this summit should be kept in check.
But Trump should be prepared for difficult conversations on some key issues — trade, technology, the Iran war, and especially Taiwan. Although global attention will be focused on the US-China trade relationship, Beijing has signalled publicly, privately, and with increasing frequency in the lead-up to the visit that the Taiwan issue will be high on, if not at the top of, Xi’s agenda. As Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi told US secretary of state Marco Rubio recently, Taiwan “is the biggest risk in China-US relations” and that “new space for China-US co-operation” is contingent upon how Washington handles the issue.