The prospect of blockbuster listings from SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI has excited stockpickers. The S&P 500’s AI-driven growth has thus far been underpinned by chipmakers and hyperscalers. These initial public offerings would give investors direct exposure to model developers (and a rocket company).
But history suggests the issuance buzz may in fact mark the beginning of the end of the tech rally.
Long-run data collated by BCA Research shows that the S&P 500 tends to underperform after major IPOs. This is partly because an increase in the supply of stocks absorbs capital near market highs and leaves fewer funds available to sustain the broader market.
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