The writer is head of multi asset at Royal London Asset Management, an investor in commoditiesInvestors are suffering cognitive dissonance on the topic of inflation. We have been in a seemingly intractable 1970s-style energy crisis that has the power to trigger a wage-price spiral and push the world into recession.
At the same time, the AI revolution is promising to replace large swaths of the workforce, boosting profits and keeping inflation low. Some investors may shrug as a result. The world economy is a complex system and there will always be some prices rising while others fall.
It’s a matter of time horizon. But the recent rout in government bonds is a reminder that forces pushing inflation higher from the Middle East crisis are operating here and now. Central banks may be forced to rein in economic activity.