Which man is likelier to be leading his country in 2029, Donald Trump or Volodymyr Zelenskyy? The savvy bet would be Zelenskyy, even if Trump tries to defy term limits. No other world leader can claim to have survived and thrived on the enmity of both Trump and Vladimir Putin. The misfortunes befalling Russia’s “special military operation” mean he could also outlast Putin. But Zelenskyy’s tenacity goes further than the battlefield. He, more than any other western leader — barring Trump (and for different motives) — has the ability to catalyse change in Europe.
Trump likes to hang out with winners. In the Oval Office 15 months ago he presented Zelenskyy as the loser. He said the Ukrainian did not have any cards. Having failed to get him to sign a one-sided mineral rights deal, Scott Bessent, Trump’s Treasury secretary, referred to Ukraine’s leader as “this little fucker” and the “special-needs child for the Europeans”, according to Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan in their new book, Regime Change. Children with special needs often have difficulties learning. Ukraine’s capacity to innovate on the battlefield suggests Zelenskyy does not face such challenges.
The situation on the ground has not necessarily been moving to Russia’s advantage. Trump thus took a very different approach to Zelenskyy last week at the G7 summit in Evian. The measure of the US president’s shift was evident in the G7 statement commending Ukraine’s “resilience” and “new momentum”, while promising more western arms and aid to carry it through next winter.