— and a dynamic analysis of US Treasury yield curves
In late June 2026, the US Treasury market was marked by a striking contrast between sensitivity and volatility at the short end and relative stability at the long end. Under new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed has significantly reduced forward guidance and shifted to a more data-dependent decision-making model. That change has prompted frequent repricing of the short-term rate path, while long-dated yields have shown considerable resilience. The 2-year Treasury yield has seen notable recent swings, while the 10-year and 30-year yields have remained relatively steady, narrowing yield-curve spreads.
Latest market data show that as of around June 25-26, 2026, the 2-year Treasury yield was about 4.10%-4.13%, the 10-year about 4.38%-4.41% and the 30-year about 4.86%-5.00%. The 10-year/2-year spread narrowed to roughly 0.27-0.34 percentage points, leaving the curve somewhat flatter. The MOVE index, a gauge of Treasury volatility, fell back to a relatively low 67-70 range, indicating that overall bond-market volatility has not spun out of control.