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Is China’s express delivery price war over? The answer will lie in profits

China’s drive to stamp out cutthroat competition is starting to stabilize express delivery prices, but uneven earnings raise questions about the recovery’s sustainability.

Delivering more parcels while earning less from each was once the clearest illustration of the cutthroat competition – known locally as “involution” – plaguing China’s express delivery sector.

China’s express delivery parcel volume rose 13.6% in 2025 to 198.95 billion, while average revenue per parcel fell 6.3% year-on-year to about 7.51 yuan ($1.11). That trend has begun to change this year. Data from the State Post Bureau showed parcel volume rose 5.2% in the first five months of 2026 to 82.87 billion, while revenue increased 7.2% to 635.37 billion yuan. That implies average revenue per parcel edged up about 1.9% to 7.67 yuan. In May alone, revenue grew 9.5%, easily outpacing a 5.7% increase in parcel volume and implying a roughly 3.6% rise in revenue per parcel.

That doesn’t mean express delivery companies have raised prices across the board. The national average is also affected by international shipments, returns, individual customer parcels and changes in product mix. Still, revenue growth once again exceeding parcel-volume growth suggests the industry’s yearslong price decline is beginning to ease.

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