President Donald Trump’s foreign policy legacy is likely to be defined by Iran. Right now it’s not looking good. The war has restarted. But America does not have a plausible plan for victory.
The US national security establishment is already defining down what success might mean. At last week’s meeting of the Aspen Security Forum, Mark Esper, who was defence secretary in Trump’s first term, argued that the US could be satisfied with the achievement of two main goals. First, reopening the Strait of Hormuz without tolls being charged. Second, restraints on Iran’s nuclear programme, equivalent to those achieved by the Obama administration. In other words, America’s aim should simply be to re-establish the status quo before the war.
But even these modest goals may not be achievable. Iran is determined to charge tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz — and it is hard to see how America will ultimately be able to prevent that happening. Tolling Hormuz would potentially raise billions of dollars in revenues and give Tehran a permanent chokehold over the world’s energy supplies.