In a war that has produced countless acts of Russian barbarity, the destruction of the Kakhovka dam is one of the most egregious. There is, of course, no conclusive proof of Moscow’s responsibility for this humanitarian and ecological disaster; it remains just possible this was a structural collapse. But any analysis has to conclude that Russia had far more than Ukraine to gain. Unless another explanation emerges, the disaster joins the list of potential war crime charges against the Kremlin.
Deliberately breaching the dam to cause floods would be very much a continuation of Russian strategy. Moscow strives for “escalation dominance”, and this incident came just as Kyiv’s long-awaited counteroffensive was stirring. Russia has targeted critical infrastructure to try to sap Ukraine’s morale and fighting ability. It has adopted a scorched-earth policy towards Ukrainian territory. And it has already shown itself ready to use flooding as a weapon, firing on another nearby dam to hinder opposing troops last autumn.
If this was instead a structural breakdown, Russia’s failure to repair the dam after it was damaged in fighting months ago, coupled with recent unusually high water levels, amounts essentially to criminal negligence.