Inflation’s sharp slowdown across advanced economies has created a stand-off between markets and central banks over when borrowing costs will edge lower.
To one side are central bankers warning it is too early to do a victory dance in their fight for stable prices, while on the other investors are already celebrating by betting on how soon interest rates will be cut.
The course of inflation will be crucial in determining which side is proved right. Several factors, such as flattening energy prices and strong wage growth, threaten to delay policymakers’ mission to complete the “last mile” of bringing inflation down to their 2 per cent target.
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