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How soon will machines outsmart humans? The biggest brains in AI disagree

Elon Musk’s prediction that artificial intelligence will surpass human experts by 2025 sets him apart from rivals at OpenAI, Google and Meta

A string of breakthroughs in artificial intelligence over the past year has raised expectations for the arrival of machines that can outperform expert humans across a range of intellectual tasks.

With progress in AI seeming to accelerate, there is near consensus in Silicon Valley that abilities that seemed far-fetched only a few years ago are now closer at hand.

But asking AI researchers exactly when they expect to hit this milestone will produce more arguments than precise dates.

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