The pollsters’ conundrum: how big or small a victory could Labour win?
英国民调机构遇到难题：工党的胜选优势有多大？

Significant potential swings, tactical voting and undecided voters may all play havoc with forecasting models
虽然所有人都认为斯塔默领导的工党有望在7月4日的大选中获胜，但各方对于胜选的领先幅度有多大存在巨大分歧。

更新于2024年6月14日 16:18 英国《金融时报》Oliver Hawkins，Jonathan Vincent

In the 55 polls released since start of campaign, Labour’s lead over the Tories has varied from 12 percentage points at its lowest to 27 at its highest

This UK general election presents an unusual headache for pollsters: while everyone agrees Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party is on course for victory on July 4, there is huge disagreement about how big that win could be.

这次英国大选给民调机构带来了一个不同寻常的头疼问题：虽然所有人都认为基尔•斯塔默爵士(Sir Keir Starmer)领导的工党(Labour Party)有望在7月4日的大选中获胜，但各方对于胜选的领先幅度有多大存在巨大分歧。

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The pollsters’ conundrum: how big or small a victory could Labour win?英国民调机构遇到难题：工党的胜选优势有多大？

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The pollsters’ conundrum: how big or small a victory could Labour win?
英国民调机构遇到难题：工党的胜选优势有多大？