英国大选

The pollsters’ conundrum: how big or small a victory could Labour win?

Significant potential swings, tactical voting and undecided voters may all play havoc with forecasting models
In the 55 polls released since start of campaign, Labour’s lead over the Tories has varied from 12 percentage points at its lowest to 27 at its highest

This UK general election presents an unusual headache for pollsters: while everyone agrees Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party is on course for victory on July 4, there is huge disagreement about how big that win could be.

The FT’s polling average shows the opposition party with 43 per cent support, 21 points above the Conservatives. But this headline figure disguises a wide variation between pollsters.

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