Climate change exacerbates conflict, something that will only increase as temperatures continue to rise. But our responses to climate change, via the energy transition, can also generate conflict, and in ways we haven’t yet begun to address.
Such violence as was seen during the gilets jaunes protests in France in 2018 was mild. But the drive to net zero, the green transition and climate change are now weaponised as a ‘wedge issue’ in culture wars by conservative and far-right parties opposed to greener policies. Radicalism on both sides may deepen and even turn violent.
Whatever happens in western Europe and North America will almost certainly be dwarfed by outcomes in countries like Iraq, Libya and Nigeria. Already deeply affected by climate change and conflict, their economies are dominated by fossil fuels (over 89 per cent of exports in all three) that are contributing to the environmental crisis, as well as to domestic corruption and violence.