Earlier in the summer, the Democratic party and its supporters faced a difficult decision: should they gently but firmly sideline President Joe Biden from the 2024 ticket? There were plenty of reasons to agonise over the decision: loyalty to Biden; the daunting practicalities of the switch; fear of the chaos that might ensue; nervousness that the likely replacement, Biden’s vice-president Kamala Harris, wasn’t up to the job.
But such nerve-racking judgment calls are meat and drink to the likes of Nate Silver, author, poker player and widely admired forecaster of election results. In his new book On The Edge, Silver examines and admires the culture of what he calls “The River” — people who think probabilistically, are happy to be contrarian and have a high tolerance for taking risks.
For a Riverian such as Silver, the decision was simple. There was plenty of data from opinion polls indicating that Biden was likely to lose the election. The same data suggested that most plausible replacements, including Harris, would do better. Yes, there was some risk in ejecting Biden, but overall it was a bet worth making. That’s how the world looks to a Riverian. (Most politicians are not Riverians but, notably, many of the financiers and entrepreneurs who fund political campaigns are.)