Optimism among executives at large US companies hit record levels during fourth-quarter earnings season. Yet analyst estimates are deteriorating. What explains the contrast? Part of the blame may lie with AI — and the natural tendency of people to go with the flow.
Bank of America’s measure of S&P 500-wide corporate sentiment — based on analysis of thousands of earnings call transcripts — is at an all-time high.
But as of the end of last week, analysts were expecting index-wide earnings growth of 11.4 per cent for 2025, according to LSEG. That’s decent, but lower than the 14 per cent they were forecasting at the start of January. Predictions for first-quarter growth have come down particularly sharply.
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