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Misplaced trust in tariff revenues

And the annual jobs revision

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Good morning. Late on Tuesday, a federal judge ruled in favour of Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, stating that US President Donald Trump had not identified any conduct or performance that would justify firing her. She can remain on the board for now, and will most likely still be in her position for the September Fed meeting — a meeting that will probably involve a cut. That is, unless today’s CPI release comes in notably hot. Email us: unhedged@ft.com

Tariff revenues

Last week, an interesting dynamic in the market took shape: investors are actually starting to like tariffs, or at least the revenues they create. When a federal court overruled the legal status for Trump’s sweeping tariffs late on Friday August 29, the market woke up on Monday in a panic. Two-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasuries all jumped, despite the growing case for a rate cut: 

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