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Trump had to choose between Israel and Qatar. He chose Qatar

Gaza’s future hangs in the balance. But while a fragile ceasefire holds, it looks like Israel has lost influence over the peace process, writes Lawrence Freedman

It is not hard to think of reasons why the “Trump Peace Agreement” will fail. The first stage requires the release of Hamas’s hostages and Israel’s prisoners, a very partial withdrawal by the Israel Defense Forces, and more aid getting into Gaza. Although the living hostages are thankfully now freed, predictably Hamas has been unable to locate the remains of all the deceased. Aid convoys must navigate their way through rubble full of unexploded ordnance. Hamas is still in charge of Gaza City and is, again predictably in the absence of any stronger force, settling scores and dealing with opposing factions. If they manage to hold on to their weapons then Israel will have an excuse to keep the IDF in place, ready to renew hostilities. 

To move the process forward, big steps will need to be taken soon. The most urgent requirement is to get the international stabilisation force in place and bring some law and order to the Strip. Without this, and without Hamas disarming, aid will remain hard to distribute and a new transitional authority will not be able to get on with recovery and reconstruction. US Central Command in Doha will have a role in the introduction of the force, although no American troops will be involved.

Egypt has a big stake in calming Gaza and has been preparing a small Palestinian police force (Israel will be nervous about a large one). Indonesia seems ready to make a significant contribution to the stabilisation force, although it may want a UN Security Council resolution. Pakistan and Azerbaijan have also been mentioned. Agreeing on the size of the contingents and sorting out command structures and logistics for such forces normally takes weeks or even months but in this case, that time is simply not available if a chaotic situation is to be avoided. The longer it takes, the more desperate and frustrated the Gazan people will become.

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