Throughout his first and second terms, Donald Trump has pushed the boundaries of what seems thinkable from a US president. His threats towards Greenland, though, feel like a turning point. His tariff blackmail over the Arctic island has left America and Europe on the verge of economic confrontation. Were the US to make a move on the Danish territory this could spell the end of Nato. Whether Trump can be talked down from his threats is now an existential question for the post-1945 transatlantic alliance.
Europe cannot afford to roll over and allow Trump’s threatened tariffs on six EU states plus the UK and Norway, should they happen, to go unanswered. This US president penalises perceived weakness, and vital issues of principle are at stake. Yet European leaders should be wary of unleashing an escalatory spiral that could spin out of control. They must leave open space for creative negotiated solutions.
For the Europeans, calibrating next steps should start with a clear-headed evaluation of strengths and weaknesses. Despite Europe’s economic heft, its reliance on the US for everything from cloud computing to support for Ukraine gives the White House escalation dominance. China forced Trump into a partial tariffs climbdown last year by threatening restrictions on rare earths. Europe lacks a trade weapon of comparable potency and, unlike Beijing, has not spent years gaming out confrontations with the US.