Welcome back to The AI Shift, our weekly dive into how AI is shaking up the labour market. This week, armed with a huge trove of fresh data and some exclusive new analysis, we revisit the topic of our opening edition from a new angle: how confident should we be that AI is behind declining junior employment in exposed occupations like software?

John writes

For well over a year now, there has been a steady stream of reports citing evidence that generative AI is displacing early-career work in LLM-exposed occupations. In broad brush strokes the narrative makes intuitive sense — youth unemployment has risen as AI has taken off. It also finds support in careful analysis of detailed employment data, which shows a hit to employment specifically for juniors in industries and firms where adoption of AI is highest. But what if this apparent direct link is a mirage? And what if looking at employment numbers has been a red herring?