For weeks, Donald Trump has dangled the threat of war over Iran while pressuring the regime to agree to a deal. But any war needs a clear objective, the right military resources and a plan. Despite the extraordinarily high stakes — for the Iranian people, the broader Middle East and the global economy — this one appears to be lacking all three.
The US president’s ultimate goals, after the biggest popular protests in Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution and the regime’s brutal crackdown, are still unclear. Was he ever serious about agreeing a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, or does he simply want to force a weakened regime to surrender to his demands? On the terms of any deal, his messaging has been mixed: does he just want Tehran to permanently abandon its nuclear programme, which he says US bombs “obliterated” in June? Or must Iran also accept strict limits on its ballistic missile programme and end its support for regional militant groups?
Trump last week gave Iran a 10 to 15-day window for a deal, or “bad things will happen”. But he has left negotiations to his envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. Neither has experience with Iran nor the technical knowhow required in complex nuclear negotiations.