“The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit, should Iran not do that.” This staggering remark from “secretary of war” Pete Hegseth explains why none of the US allies being asked to join in the fight to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are prepared to do so: they were not consulted; this is not a Nato operation; and, above all, the people in charge are plainly careless. Of course, Iran is attacking the shipping in the strait. That is the most obvious way for its leadership to fend off the US and Israeli assault. The question is rather what are the attackers able to do about it. After all, as Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, notes, “in the case of this Iran war, . . . there is near-universal agreement, that it all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz”. At the moment Iran does. So long as this is true, it is winning.
“目前唯一阻碍海峡通行的，就是伊朗向商船开火。只要伊朗不这么做，海峡就对通行开放。”这句令人瞠目的表态出自美国“战争部长”皮特•赫格塞思(Pete Hegseth)，恰好解释了为何被要求参与重开霍尔木兹海峡行动的美国盟友都不愿出手：他们事先未被征询意见；这不是一项北约行动；更重要的是，主事者显然疏忽大意。 当然，伊朗正在袭击海峡内的船只——这是其领导层抵御美以攻势最显而易见的方式。问题在于，发动攻击的一方能对此做些什么。毕竟，正如桥水基金(Bridgewater)创始人雷•达里奥(Ray Dalio)所言，“就这场伊朗战争而言……几乎一致的意见是，一切归结于谁控制霍尔木兹海峡”。目前，控制权在伊朗手里。只要这一点不变，伊朗就在取胜。