The Iran war is metastasising into a global economic calamity. Ever since the US and Israel launched strikes on the Islamic republic on February 28, financial markets have been lulled by the belief that the conflict would not last long. In turn, they have discounted the threat of a severe disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas is shipped. But hostilities are entering a fourth week and the prospects of de-escalation seem to wax and wane every 24 hours. In recent days Israel and Iran have also each inflicted lasting damage on critical regional gas facilities. The worst-case scenarios for investors and policymakers are now coming into view.
伊朗战争正转移并扩散为一场manbetx app苹果 manbetx20客户端下载 灾难。自2月28日美国和以色列对伊斯兰共和国发动打击以来，金融市场一直因“冲突不会持续太久”的预期而放松警惕，进而低估了霍尔木兹海峡遭遇严重中断的威胁——manbetx app苹果 约五分之一的石油和液化天然气经此运输。然而，敌对行动已进入第四周，局势缓和的前景几乎每天都在起伏不定。近几日，以色列与伊朗还各自对关键的地区天然气设施造成了持久破坏。对投资者和决策者而言，最糟糕的情形正逐渐浮出水面。