Unlike the ultracrepidarian columnists at other papers, I have no special endoscope to see inside the Iran regime — nor the brain of President Trump. As the war clocks up a month, what happens next? I haven’t a clue.
I do have a beard as grey as a koala’s bum, however, so I can tell you that markets have already discounted every permutation of outcomes to the conflict already. And that includes the worst ones possible.
Prices incorporate rosy endings too. But we know fewer investors lean this way because risk assets have generally been weaker since February 28. They also leapt on Monday, following supposed “very good and productive conversations”.
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