Growth in the global trade of goods will fall significantly by the end of next year if the Middle East conflict continues to rupture oil markets, according to a new analysis.
The study, based on modelling of previous price shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2008 commodity crash, indicates that global trade flows will become less resilient if the conflict drags on.
Independent monitoring body Global Trade Alert found that persistent oil price fluctuations would lead to global trade growth shrinking by 1.75 per cent by the end of next year, a significant reduction on prewar expectations.
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