Britain’s long-delayed defence investment plan is one of the last big announcements from outgoing prime minister Sir Keir Starmer. It exemplifies the inability of his cabinet to face up adequately to the hard choices of government. The plan has been spruced up since the resignation earlier this month of defence secretary John Healey (which helped seal Starmer’s fate); the extra spending over the next four years is upped by £1.5bn to £15bn. Yet Healey’s criticism holds true: the long-delayed plan remains well short of what was required. The presumptive next prime minister, Andy Burnham, will somehow need to find more money.
The shape of the plan shows lessons have been learned from how the Ukraine and Iran conflicts have reshaped war. Some £5bn will be invested into a “drone transformation” to deliver uncrewed and autonomous weapons for all services. Rather than ageing destroyers and frigates being replaced, the navy will procure six “hybrid” vessels designed as mother ships for uncrewed systems.
A necessary balance is struck with continuing to fund the broader spectrum of capabilities, including high-end projects such as the Aukus submarine project. But military experts warn of an excessive focus on long-term programmes designed to counter Chinese capabilities and project power into the Asia-Pacific, rather than preparing to fight — or preferably deter — a conflict with Russia, which Nato has warned could happen by 2030.