Wall Street is obsessing over the US yield curve these days. No wonder. An inverted US yield curve, in which short-term interest rates are higher than long-term ones, is widely seen as an ominous sign of looming recession risks.
On Monday, the yield on 30-year Treasuries fell below that on five-year ones for the first time since 2006. That comes after yields in other parts of the curve — namely the five to 10-year and three to 10-year — inverted last week.
Even the closely watched two to 10-year part of the curve is becoming dangerously flat. The moves appear to reflect fears that efforts by the US Federal Reserve to tackle inflation with aggressive rate rises could hurt economic growth or even tip the US into a recession.
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