Victory Day was touted as a turning point in Russia’s war against Ukraine. But President Vladimir Putin revealed no new steps on Monday. Nor did Brussels announce new sanctions, despite pushing for an agreement ahead of Moscow’s military parade. Even so, the EU is getting very close to joining the G7 in enacting a historic ban on Russian oil. Its effects will be felt across the world.
Holdouts are demanding carve-outs and delays. Hungary in particular is reliant on Russian supplies. Budapest-based multinational energy group MOL says it does not have the technology to refine crude from elsewhere. Retooling its refineries could take years and cost about $500mn.
But Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic account for less than a tenth of the EU’s Russian imports total. Even if they secured exemptions, an EU ban would have clout. It imported 4mn b/d of crude oil and products, making it Russia’s main market, according to UBS. Last year Russia exported two-thirds of its 10.8mn b/d production.