In his State of the Union address days after Vladimir Putin’s forces invaded Ukraine, President Joe Biden listed measures the US was taking to punish Russia in a “battle between democracy and autocracy”. Yet as the west has sought to isolate one autocrat, it has been forced to seek help from others: Saudi Arabia and its fellow absolute monarchies in the oil-rich Gulf.
Since Biden’s February speech, oil and gas prices have hit their highest in more than a decade as the west tries to strangle Russian energy exports. This month, the EU approved a plan to ban Russian seaborne oil imports. The bloc also agreed to co-ordinate with the UK on plans to ban insuring ships carrying Russian crude, which would further stymie Moscow’s ability to export.
Before the war, Russia produced more than 10 per cent of global oil supplies and was a vital source of energy for Europe. The International Energy Agency has forecast its output could now decline by up to 3mn barrels a day. There will be shippers willing to transport Russian crude to China or India. But the level of Moscow’s exports is only heading in one direction, threatening a significant undersupply in the market.