The writer is chief market strategist for Europe, Middle East and Africa at JPMorgan Asset Management
A fellow panellist at a recent conference proclaimed: “The low inflation decades were a golden era for investors.” The audience nodded furiously and then became increasingly glum as all panellists agreed this era was behind us.
In a similar vein, I often hear the argument that low or negative interest rates, and the other monetary tactics which central banks deployed to combat low inflation, boosted all asset prices. And so higher interest rates should naturally depress the valuation of all risk assets.
Both arguments sound compelling. But neither are necessarily right. Or perhaps I should say the ‘low-rates-boosts-returns argument’ isn’t right for all assets.
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