The writer is co-chief investment officer for Bridgewater Associates
It’s been awhile since investors faced a stagflationary environment and there are good odds that this is what they will face over the coming decade.
In stagflation, a high level of nominal spending growth cannot be met by the quantity of goods produced, resulting in above-target inflation. Policymakers are not able to simultaneously achieve their inflation and growth targets, forcing them to choose between the two.
This choice is acutely difficult in Europe due to the simultaneous weakening in economies: nominal spending is being absorbed by higher energy prices, leaving less real growth, while the decline in the euro is raising the cost of imports.
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