The writer is an adviser to Monex Group and the Japan Catalyst Fund
Currency markets move in the direction of maximum pain. I learned this insight from a hedge fund manager who bet against the pound 30 years ago on expectations that the UK would be forced to leave the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.
Japan is now close to its pain point. While a parabolic overshoot from current levels of around ¥148 against the dollar towards ¥155-60 is still possible, the balance of risk is now asymmetric. In my view, by this time next year, the yen is poised to be back up to ¥115/120.
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